81% of Owners Are Meeting 2026 Goals — But 54% Say Lack of Capital Is Holding Them Back

Most small business owners say 2026 is going better than they expected. But a new survey released October 8 finds a growing share of them cannot get the money they need to take the next step, while energy bills and cautious customers eat into margins.

The Headline Numbers

The Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council) released its October 2026 Small Business Check Up survey, conducted online by TechnoMetrica Marketplace Intelligence from September 11 to 19. It reached 516 owners of businesses with 2 to 99 employees, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

• 81% say they are meeting or exceeding their financial expectations for 2026.
• 61% report better performance than in 2025; 14% report worse.
• 88% describe their business as stable or growing, including 20% who say they are thriving and 42% who report moderate growth.
• 51% expect to end 2026 in a stronger financial position than they ended 2025; 12% expect to be worse off.

SBE Council President and CEO Karen Kerrigan summed it up this way: "Their own business performance remains remarkably resilient."

The Catch: Capital Is Getting Harder to Reach

The most important number in the survey may be this one: 54% of owners say a lack of access to capital is constraining their growth. In February, that figure was 43%. In eight months, the share of owners feeling boxed out of funding rose 11 points.

For a business that is doing fine today, that gap matters. Growth usually needs cash up front: inventory, equipment, a second location, a new hire. If your sales are stable but you cannot fund the next step, you stay stable.

What to do about it

• Clean up your books first. Lenders look at your profit and loss statement before anything else. Owners with current, accurate statements move faster.
• Look at SBA-backed options. Our SBA loan guide explains how the programs work and what lenders ask for.
• Separate personal and business money. A dedicated business bank account makes your cash flow easier to document.
• Ask for less, sooner. A smaller request tied to a specific purchase is easier to approve than a vague request for working capital.

Energy Costs Jumped to No. 2

Inflation remains the top worry, named by 39% of owners. But gas and energy costs have climbed to second place at 29%. In February, only 11% listed them as a top concern, and they ranked ninth. Other concerns include economic uncertainty (28%), recession or slowdown fears (20%), competition (20%) and tariffs (19%).

Worry about the next 12 months has also grown:

• 81% are concerned about inflation, including 37% who are very concerned (up from 73% and 27% in February).
• 73% are concerned about a slowdown or recession, including 34% very concerned (up from 59% and 20%).

If you run vehicles, a kitchen, a warehouse or a production line, check your fuel and utility lines this month. A cost that moves from a footnote to a top-three problem in eight months can change your pricing.

Customers Are Trading Down

Revenue is holding up for many owners, but shoppers are more careful. Over the past six months, 36% of owners say customer spending decreased, 29% say it increased and 31% say it stayed the same. Owners also reported these changes in customer behavior:

• 34% of customers are choosing lower-priced options.
• 28% are seeking discounts or promotions.
• 27% are comparing prices more carefully.
• 27% are taking longer to decide.
• 27% are buying fewer products or services.
• 25% are postponing purchases.

The practical takeaway: a "good enough" tier or a bundle can keep price-sensitive customers from walking away, and a clear explanation of your value can shorten decision time.

What Is Driving Results

The survey asked owners who reported improved or stable performance what is behind it. The top answers were:

• Higher or stable sales: 38%
• Cutting costs: 31%
• Adopting technology such as AI: 28%
• Social media marketing: 27%
• Increased advertising: 25%
• Paying down debt: 23%
• Expanding capacity: 22%
• Entering new markets or launching new products or services: 22%

Owners also named the channels that win them customers best: social media marketing (28%), word of mouth (22%), paid online ads (8%), email marketing (5%), networking events (4%) and content marketing (4%). Free and referral-driven channels are doing most of the work, so paid ads at 8% deserve a hard look if your budget is tight.

Hiring: Cautious, Not Cutting

Over the next six months, 30% of owners expect to add staff, 4% expect cuts and 61% expect no change. Labor shortages are a mixed picture: 24% call the impact minor, 20% moderate, 11% severe and 2% critical, while 44% say it is not a concern.

If you are hiring, remember that classification mistakes are expensive. Review our guide to independent contractor vs employee before you bring on help.

AI Is Now Routine

The survey found that 58% of owners use AI agents regularly or occasionally, and another 14% are considering or planning to. At the same time, 16% say AI is eliminating more jobs than it creates. The survey also found that one quarter of owners say concerns about lawsuits led them to make decisions they would not otherwise have made, and 60% support reforming the legal system.

What You Can Do This Week

1. Compare yourself to the pack. If you are in the 81% meeting expectations, the question is what you will do with the momentum. If you are in the 14% doing worse than last year, look at which of the customer behaviors above you are seeing.
2. Price your energy exposure. Add up fuel, utilities and shipping for the last three months and decide whether a modest surcharge or price adjustment is needed.
3. Get capital-ready before you need it. Gather two years of tax returns, current financial statements and a one-page plan for how you would use the money.
4. Test a lower-priced option. With about a third of customers trading down, a smaller package may capture sales you are losing.
5. Pilot AI on one task. Choose a repetitive job such as drafting replies or summarizing invoices, keep a human approval step, and measure the time saved.

The Bottom Line

Small business owners are not in crisis, but they are working harder to grow. The survey describes businesses that are stable and often profitable, held back by funding, rising energy costs and customers who are watching every dollar. The owners who are best positioned for the final quarter are the ones who treat access to capital as something to prepare for now, not after the opportunity appears.

Source: SBE Council Small Business Check Up survey, October 8, 2026. The survey reflects owners of businesses with 2 to 99 employees and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

Photo by Ellicia on Unsplash