Shoppers Plan to Send $118 Billion to Small Businesses This Holiday — Here's Your Play

Small Business Saturday lands on November 28, and a new survey suggests shoppers are ready to back it with real money. Intuit QuickBooks' 2026 Holiday Shopping Survey finds consumers plan to direct 43% of their holiday budgets to small businesses — roughly $118 billion, up 8.3% from last year. But the same survey shows shoppers are worried about prices, and half think price hikes are not justified. Here is how to read the numbers and what to do with them in the next three weeks.

The Numbers Behind the $118 Billion

QuickBooks fielded the survey in August 2026, polling 6,000 U.S. consumers and 1,002 small business owners, managers, and decision-makers at businesses with 0 to 99 employees. The headline findings on the consumer side:

• Shoppers plan to spend $278 billion this holiday season, up 5.7% from $263 billion last year.
• They plan to direct 43% of that budget to small businesses, up from 41% in 2025 and 36% in 2024.
• That share works out to about $118 billion, an 8.3% increase.
• 13% of consumers say they have finished or plan to finish most shopping by September, up from 10% last year.

Why do shoppers say they choose small businesses? The top reasons were unique or higher-quality gifts (47%), supporting the community (46%), customer service and expertise (38%), and convenience (33%, up from 30%). Notice that two of the top three are things a big-box store has a hard time faking: uniqueness and service.

Also worth knowing: 89% of consumers say supporting small businesses is important, and 35% plan to spend more at small businesses this season, while 56% expect no change and 9% plan to spend less.

Owners Are Feeling Better — Cautiously

On the owner side, optimism has climbed three years in a row. In the survey, 76% of small business owners expect more revenue this holiday season, compared with 65% in 2025 and 44% in 2024. Another 43% say they are "very confident" customers will spend enough, up from 39% last year.

Preparation also started earlier: 67% of owners began planning in September or sooner, versus 64% in 2025 and 39% in 2024. If you are only now thinking about the holidays, you are behind the typical competitor, but there is still time to act.

Last season's results help explain the mood. Of the owners surveyed, 40% said revenue beat expectations, 51% said it met them, and 7% said it fell short. Interestingly, 47% now call this season's revenue critically or very important, down from 59% last year.

The Warning Signs in the Same Survey

This is not a victory lap. The survey also shows shoppers under pressure, and that affects how you should price and promote.

• Job and price worries: 64% of Gen Z and 59% of Millennials are concerned about job security, and 70% of Gen Z and 65% of Millennials are concerned about inflation or tariffs.
• Price sensitivity: 61% of shoppers are at least somewhat bothered by rising prices. Only 9% see price increases as fully justified, while 49% say they are not really or not at all justified.
• Shipping: 41% expect higher shipping or delivery costs, up from 33% last year.
• Lower-income shoppers: 19% say they will cut essentials to fund holiday spending, compared with 7% of upper-income shoppers. And 63% of lower-income shoppers lean on debit cards.
• Buy now, pay later: 21% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials plan to use it.

Meanwhile, tariffs still weigh on owners. About 64% of small businesses report a significant tariff impact (down from 69%), while 29% report none (up from 23%). And 38% have raised or plan to raise prices, with another 43% considering it. That puts you in a squeeze: customers dislike price increases, but your costs may not give you a choice.

Five Moves to Make Before Small Business Saturday

1. Lead with what shoppers say they value

Unique products, community, and service beat price as reasons to shop small. Feature handmade, local, or hard-to-find items in your windows, emails, and posts. Put your staff's expertise front and center — a gift recommendation from a real person is something an algorithm can't match.

2. Be transparent about price increases

With nearly half of shoppers skeptical about increases, explain them. A short sign or social post about higher material or shipping costs, paired with a few clearly priced entry-level gifts, can protect trust. Consider bundles and gift sets instead of across-the-board cuts that erode your margin.

3. Take payments flexibly

Since many younger shoppers use buy-now-pay-later and many lower-income shoppers rely on debit, make sure your checkout supports the methods your customers actually use. If you add a card surcharge, check the rules in your state first.

4. Show up where people discover small shops

Instagram and TikTok are the top online channel for buying from small businesses for 23% of shoppers (20% in 2025, 16% in 2024). AI is also changing discovery: 43% of shoppers plan to use AI tools this season, mostly to find better prices (64%), save search time (47%), and discover products (46%). On the owner side, 46% have already taken steps to be found through AI search or shopping tools and 33% plan to. Make sure your product titles, descriptions, hours, and reviews are accurate and complete everywhere customers might look.

5. Join Small Business Saturday for free

According to a November 4 industry report, any independent brick-and-mortar or online business can take part at no cost, and American Express offers free marketing materials. The SBA plans to release a social media guide and graphics, though no date has been announced. Listing on the official Shop Small map has rules, including a 25-location cap.

Get Your Business Ready, Not Just Your Display

A busy weekend only helps if the business behind it is in order. Before the crowds arrive, confirm that your business license and permits are current, that a dedicated business bank account is handling your sales so your books stay clean, and that your business insurance covers extra holiday inventory and foot traffic. If you will need to buy inventory ahead of the rush, the SBA loan guide explains financing options, though timing matters.

It is also smart to track what works. Note which promotions bring customers in and what the margin is on each, then review it in your profit and loss statement in January. This year's data is next year's playbook.

The Bottom Line

The survey points to a real opportunity: $118 billion in planned small business spending and a growing share of each shopper's budget. It also shows consumers watching every dollar. The owners most likely to capture their share will be the ones who lead with uniqueness and service, explain their prices honestly, make it easy to pay, and get found online before November 28 arrives.

Source: Intuit QuickBooks Holiday Shopping Survey 2026 (fielded August 2026; 6,000 U.S. consumers and 1,002 U.S. small business decision-makers), and Vision Monday's November 4, 2026 report on Small Business Saturday. Survey figures reflect stated plans, not actual spending.

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