Holiday Sales Are Forecast to Top $1 Trillion — Here's How Small Shops Can Get a Slice

The biggest selling season of the year is two weeks from starting, and the forecasts are strong. On October 15, 2026, the National Retail Federation projected that holiday sales will grow 4.2% over last year to reach $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion in 2025. Adobe expects online shoppers alone to spend a record $275.1 billion. The question for a small business owner is not whether customers will spend, but whether you will be easy to find and profitable when they do.

The Two Forecasts, Side by Side

The NRF forecast covers November 1 through December 31, 2026, and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Last year's holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion, so this year's projected 4.2% gain is faster. NRF chief economist Mark Mathews described consumers as "the bright spot in the economy," while NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said shoppers "will prioritize the holiday season" even as they stay mindful of budgets.

Adobe's online forecast for the same November to December window points to $275.1 billion, up 6.7% from last year. Online is growing faster than the overall market, which means a shop without a clear online presence is leaving the faster-growing slice of the season to others.

The Dates That Matter Most

Adobe broke the season into the days that tend to decide a retailer's year. Mark these on your calendar:

• Thanksgiving: $6.9 billion online, up 8.5%.
• Black Friday: $12.9 billion, up 9.2%, with growth outpacing Cyber Monday because of earlier discounts.
• Cyber Monday (November 30): $15.1 billion, up 6.2%, and still the biggest online shopping day of the season.
• Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday): $47.5 billion, up 7.4%, or 17.3% of the whole season.

The takeaway: roughly one dollar in six of online holiday spending happens in one week. If your website, inventory and shipping are not ready by then, you cannot make that week up later.

Discounts Start Earlier Than Many Owners Plan For

Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% during Cyber Week, with electronics peaking at 30% and toys at 29%. Its model shows discounts building through the season: up to 14% in early November, up to 21% before Thanksgiving, and 10% to 15% in December. Early promotions are part of why Black Friday is projected to grow faster than Cyber Monday.

You do not have to match the deepest discounts of large retailers. But shoppers comparing prices will see those early deals, so plan your own promotions deliberately rather than reacting to them.

Mobile Is Now the Default Checkout

Adobe projects that 63% of Cyber Week online spending will happen on mobile devices, a record up from 61.6% last year. For the full season, mobile's share is 57.4%. Buy now, pay later is also growing, reaching $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6%, with mobile making up 82% of that spending.

If your checkout is clumsy on a phone, you are losing sales during the exact week when the most are available. Test your own site on your own phone this week: how many taps from product to payment?

AI Is Sending Shoppers to Retail Sites

Adobe forecasts that traffic to U.S. retail sites from AI tools will rise 130% year over year, peaking at Thanksgiving with a 159% increase, followed by Black Friday (up 95%) and Cyber Monday (up 88%). That does not tell you exactly how those shoppers behave, but it does suggest that clear product descriptions, accurate prices and complete shipping information on your site matter more than ever. If an AI tool cannot read your product details, it cannot recommend them.

Be Realistic About Costs

The sales picture is bright, but costs are rising too. Wholesale prices jumped 1.3% in September, so the goods you buy for resale may cost more than last year, and peak-season carrier surcharges are adding to delivery costs. A bigger sales forecast does not guarantee bigger profit if your margins are squeezed.

Eight Steps to Take Before November 1

1. Set your promo calendar. Decide your early-November, pre-Thanksgiving, Cyber Week and December offers now, and calculate the margin on each.
2. Check inventory against last year. Reorder best sellers early. With online growth of 6.7%, running out of top items is more expensive than carrying a little extra.
3. Test mobile checkout. Buy something from your own store on your phone, and fix any step that slows you down.
4. Offer flexible payment options. With buy now, pay later volume approaching $21.3 billion, ask your payment processor what it supports and what it charges.
5. Review product pages. Make sure titles, prices, sizes and shipping times are clear and accurate.
6. Plan staffing. NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires this year, compared with an estimated 356,000 last year. Review independent contractor vs employee rules before you bring on holiday help.
7. Line up cash. Inventory is bought before revenue arrives. If you need working capital, compare your options early; the SBA loan guide explains what lenders look for.
8. Protect your business. Confirm your business insurance covers seasonal inventory and any temporary locations or pop-ups.

The Bottom Line

The forecasts say customers plan to spend, and they plan to spend earlier, on their phones, and with more help from AI tools. Large retailers will chase every dollar of it, but small shops have advantages in personal service, unique products and quick decisions. Forecasts are not guarantees, and consumers remain watchful of their budgets, so keep your plan flexible. Get your promotions, inventory and checkout ready in the next two weeks, and you will be positioned to share in the season.

Sources: National Retail Federation press release (October 15, 2026); Adobe Digital Economy Index holiday forecast (September 2026).

Photo by Heidi Fin on Unsplash