Small Business Sales Hit Their Best Pace in 15 Months — But Foot Traffic Is Still Falling

Small business sales grew 2.3% in October compared with a year earlier, the strongest annual gain since July 2025, according to the Fiserv Small Business Index released November 3. The catch for owners heading into the holidays: fewer customers are walking through the door. Foot traffic fell 1.2% year over year, the 12th straight annual decline.

What the October Numbers Show

The index, which Fiserv benchmarks to 2019, reached 146 in October. Sales rose 0.3% from September. Average spending per transaction climbed 3.5% year over year, which means the typical customer is spending more per visit even though there are fewer visits.

Foot traffic did improve at the margin. The 1.2% annual decline was the smallest since February 2026, and traffic rose 0.5% from September. Fiserv's chief data officer, Prasanna Dhore, said small businesses are "entering the holiday season with encouraging momentum on both spending and customer activity." He also noted that October's monthly sales gains came from more purchases rather than larger tickets, and that sustaining that momentum as holiday shopping accelerates is the next signal to watch.

The data comes from point-of-sale transactions (card, cash and check) at about 2 million U.S. small businesses, including hundreds of thousands on the Clover platform. It is not a survey, so it reflects what customers actually spent rather than what owners say they expect.

Where the Growth Came From

Essentials beat discretionary spending

Essentials rose 2.7% year over year, ahead of discretionary spending at 2.0%. Services grew 2.3%, slightly ahead of goods at 2.2%. Professional services rose 4.6%, led by tax preparation services, which jumped 18.6%.

Gas stations did the heavy lifting in retail

Total retail sales rose 1.9%, with transactions up 2.2% and average tickets down 0.3%. The largest contributors were gas stations (up 23.2%), sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores (up 4.3%), and motor vehicle and parts dealers (up 3.0%). Gasoline station sales had their fastest pace of 2026, driven by a 22.3% rise in average tickets, which points to higher fuel prices rather than more fill-ups.

Furniture and electronics lagged

Furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances sales fell 2.5% year over year. If you sell big-ticket household items, the index suggests shoppers are still holding back on them.

Restaurants: Fewer Orders, Bigger Tickets

Food services and drinking places sales fell 0.5% year over year but rose 0.2% from September, led by a 0.8% monthly gain at limited-service restaurants. Transactions fell 2.7% year over year, an improvement from a 3.9% decline in September, while average tickets rose 2.2%.

The split inside the category matters:

• Limited-service restaurants: sales down 2.2% year over year, with transactions down 4.0%.
• Full-service restaurants: sales up 0.5%.
• Drinking places: sales up 3.7%.

Grocery sales were flat (0.0%). Transactions rose 1.0%, but average tickets fell 1.1%, suggesting shoppers are buying more often but trimming what goes in the cart.

Goods vs. Services: Two Different Problems

The index shows two different patterns. Goods growth came from traffic: transactions rose 2.1% while average tickets were essentially flat (up 0.2%). Services went the other way: foot traffic fell 2.4% (an improvement from September), but average tickets rose 4.8%.

In plain terms, a goods seller's job is to keep customers coming back, while a service business's job is to protect the higher price per visit without losing more clients.

What This Means for Your Holiday Plan

The data does not say what your own shop will see, but it does point to a few practical moves.

• Plan for fewer visits. Foot traffic has fallen for a year. Build the holiday forecast on a modest visit count and a higher ticket, rather than assuming a rush.
• Make each visit count. With average tickets up 3.5%, bundles, gift sets and add-ons are working for many owners. Track your own average ticket weekly.
• Give people a reason to return. Goods sellers saw growth from more transactions. A simple email or text list and a post-holiday offer can drive repeat purchases.
• Watch your margins. Higher tickets can reflect higher prices, not higher demand. Compare your cost increases against your price changes.
• Keep your books ready. Holiday sales produce a lot of transactions. A current profit and loss statement shows whether the busy season is actually profitable.

Keep Your Finances Separate and Insured

Seasonal sales surges are when mixed personal and business spending gets messy. A dedicated business bank account keeps holiday revenue and expenses clean for tax time. If you are adding temporary inventory or staff, check that your business insurance limits still match your stock on hand.

The Bottom Line

October brought the best annual sales growth in 15 months, but it was built on higher spending per transaction while traffic keeps slipping. The next monthly index arrives in the first week of December and will show whether the holiday season delivered more customers or just bigger receipts. For now, the safest plan is to treat every customer visit as more valuable than it used to be.

Source: Fiserv Small Business Index, October 2026, published November 3, 2026.

Photo by Heidi Fin on Unsplash